Hurricane Rita

Being a meteorology person, here is what is going on with the strength of Rita... and nothing is certain right now. There are still about 32 hours remaining until landfall, which gives the storm plenty of time to either weaken or re-strengthen.

Here are the factors:

1. Category 5 hurricanes never stay cat 5 for long. Eventually, the inner eyewall becomes so small and intense that the storm chokes itself and ineviteably loses intensity as the eyewall re-forms. This usually happens just under 24 hours after it becomes a cat 5.

2. Only 1 cat 5 hurricane has had the chance to reform after losing it's initial strength, "Allen" in 1980... and that storm fluctuated from 170 mph down to 135, and then back up to 180, down to 140, and up to 165. Cat 5's can and will reform if given enough time... Most others run into land or wind shear first. Rita has warm, open waters for 400 miles in front of it.

3. Looking at the satellite loop, Rita has just finished choking itself. It will remain a cat 4 until the eyewall reforms, which could take anywhere from 3 hours to 3 days.

Conclusion: watch the satellite picture. If the deep red convection begins re-gaining density, which it probably will tomorrow around 5 pm, watch for the storm to re-strengthen. If the eyewall remains ragged as it is now, Rita will hit land as a cat 4 or a strong cat 3. If it reforms, Rita will rapidly intensify and hit land as a cat 5. We can only hope for the best.

Tomorrow afternoon will be the true deciding time. There are still 400 miles of 85+ degree water between Rita's eye and the Texas coast, so it is all down to how fast the storm can reorganize itself.

[hyyyper]

uugh...my mom's addicted to this hurricane season, she's watching CNNint the whole time, in holland, fgs

[Oscar]

hmm, you see how veryone is starting to flee to Mexico... time for Mexico to return the favor and start throwing them back

[Oscar]

reminds of the movie scene in the movie The Day After Tomorrow where all of the sudden the americans become the illegal immigrants cutting down the fence and running across the river I get a kick out of irony [:)]

[hyyyper]

hey wws, just a request, edit the name of this topic to Rita, just for the record...

Originally posted by WeeWeeSlap

[lol] reminds of the movie scene in the movie The Day After Tomorrow where all of the sudden the americans become the illegal immigrants cutting down the fence and running across the river I get a kick out of irony [:)]

I remember that, truly, that was irony ... I especially thought it was poignant when Mexico closed the border!

Viva La Mexico!

Here's the latest info:

8 am advisory:

Rita has weakened slightly overnight. The pressure has risen from 919 mb to 930 mb. Overnight, a pocket of dry air began to intrude on the west side of the circulation, and choked the reforming storm. Winds have dropped to 140 mph, which keeps Rita as a dangerous category 4 storm. The satellite imagery shows that the pocket of dry air will continue to weaken the eye wall. Fluctuations in intensity, up or down, are likely during the next 24 hours.

11am advisory:

Over the last 3 hours, the pocket of dry air has been supressed. An area of dry air continues to constrict Rita's west side, but satellite shows that the eyewall is now reforming and gaining strength. The central pressure has dropped to 929 millibars, signaling that the storm may be reorganizing itself. Winds have dropped to minimal category 4 strength, 135 mph, but further strengthning is expected through the afternoon and evening. It is unlikely to regain category 5 strength due to the mass of dry air on the west side of the storm, but it will likely remain a strong and dangerous category 4 hurricane until landfall tomorrow morning.

THE BAD NEWS:
Rita is expected to make landfall and then stop dead. It will be hovering over north Texas for 2+ straight days, and generate massive flooding with up to 25 inches of rain forecast in some areas. No matter how strong the winds are, this will still be an inland flooding disaster. Stay tuned.

CJ -- that high pressure sitting over MS and AL is going to kill this thing's forward movement, should be one heck of a rainfall for the gulf coast. If they can maintain proper drainage, they should fair at least half way decent.

Any encyclopedia websites that i can look about Hurricane Rita?

[hyyyper]

http://www.weather.com

??

Another couple pics.





EDIT-Seems to have weaken since the last pic I posted, which of course, is a good thing. Note, the pic at the top of the page was when it was CAT5.

[Oscar]

it is now a strong cat 3, borderline of cat 4. It had been downgraded yesterday to 4, but later at night upgraded to 5 and now all the way down to cat 3, who knows if it may go back up again, othe rhurricanes have had such patterns, one going up and down for 3 times

I just though I whould let eveyone on this site know about hurricane Rita the hurricane is geting closer to land and the winds are 120mph so the hurricane is geting weaker there is going to be alot of damage from this hurricane I say this becuse the hurricane is relly big and alot of rain and wind is going to hit texas it is almost at land now and is still a stong cat3 hurricane and the six flags parks are geting alot of damage form the winds and the rain. I fell bad for everyone who lives in texas becuse they are going to come home to alot of damage the worst part will be the strom suge the weather channel metoges saded that there was going to be a storm suge 20 feet high and the hurricane is going to slow down so that means that texas and new orlans is going to get alot of rain texas is going to get about 12-24 inches of rain.

Anyone ever hear of HAARP?

wow it seems each year more and more hurricanes keep getting stronger. this one doesnt seem as bad as it lost a lot of energy hitting land but there's still 2 months left in hurricane season. who knows what's coming next...

in atlanta, schools are closed monday and tuesday for a gas shortage. i don't know for sure if it's all because of the hurricanes, but they certainly can't be helping it. anyone else have school closings?

Update on Rita:

Hurricane Rita has been downgraded into Category 1 with maximum sustained winds about 75 mph.

Thats is really good.

i just saw on the news that part of texas was hit with 120 mph winds and 15 foot tidal surges. i didn't see many buildings destroyed, a lot of broken windows and flooding. the storm didn't hit many gasoline holding areas, but several refineries were flooded, which will slow or stop production for about a month. let's hope that the worst of the hurricanes has blown past and that future ones this season aren't as severe

Chrisps, can you spell.

He has a learning disability ... don't be a jerk coastercrazy.

Tconwell what are you talking about i didnt even comment in this forum. and BTW im not that mean to make fun of people with disabilties bexcause my little sister is partialy deaf

Look at the person I was talking to knucklehead ... (above me) -- again, pay attention to details and you avoid making a butt out of yourself.

that wasent there when i was typing . . .

Well, since I replied to him, and you replied to me ... it had to be.

it wasent . .